221 replies to this topic

[ShadowAngel7]

Sorry I got confused by the times zones. I thought we still had some time left. But now I see that there is only about half an hour left, correct?

nah, we have a little over 10 hrs left as of now; but for all the US members, a fair bit of that'll be night still and early morning. And even then, ties are very risky.

[Thalia]

there's only a 1/24 chance both are kills and a 1/36 chance on of them is the mafia kill.

Not quite following how you got those odds. . .

Edited by Thalia, 18 June 2012 - 08:34 AM.

[ShadowAngel7]

Not quite following how you got those odds. . .

1/4 odds the first in the tie is a kill. leaves 2 kills out of 12 is 1/6 odds. put them together it's 1/24. Then each kill has 1/3 odds of being the mafia kill. put together is 2/3 odds of lynching the mafia kill, assuming lynch of 2 kills. multiply that in, it's 1/36 odds of lynching the mafia kill blind.


However, on looking back, that math isn't quite right. It should be close enough for approximation, though.

[mewminator]

Why are you gonna go for a tie after she said ties mean both die? That's not a very good risk to take....there's only a 1/24 chance both are kills and a 1/36 chance on of them is the mafia kill.

might I correct the odds:
the chances that both of them are kills is 4/13 x 3/12 = 12/156 = 1/13
the chances that one of them is the mafia kill is simply 2/13

Edited by mewminator, 18 June 2012 - 09:38 AM.

[MikeD]

First in the tie has odds of 3/13 of been a kill
Second in tie would then have odds of 2/12.

So that 1 in 26 that they are both kill.

[mewminator]

First in the tie has odds of 3/13 of been a kill
Second in tie would then have odds of 2/12.

So that 1 in 26 that they are both kill.

whoops , there's 3 of each role not 4, so 1/26 both kills, 2/13 mafia kill.

[Yodell]

I'm puzzled... why do the odds matter? .. we don't know if we are goodies or baddies... the mafia have their kill no matter what, the instigator KNOWS they are mafia.. and at the moment also knows at least one other ...

Q1: if the instigator tries to awake a goodie does he learn their role ??

Q2 &3: the only way to get out from the mafia kill is save, right ? I mean it's not blockable ? the rest of the kills are blockable ?
consider the following:
A= kill (doesn't matter if he;s mafia or goodie - he doesn;t know)
B=block
actions in the evening:
1.A kills N / B blocks A - what is the result ?
or
2. A kills B / B blocks A - what is the result ?

[ShadowAngel7]

might I correct the odds:
the chances that both of them are kills is 4/13 x 3/12 = 12/156 = 1/13
the chances that one of them is the mafia kill is simply 2/13

No the odds of getting the mafia kill is 1/39; odds of getting mafia kill assuming getting 2 kills is 2/3 so it's 2/3x1/26=1/39.

Edit: math checking

Edited by ShadowAngel7, 18 June 2012 - 12:24 PM.

[Hirkala]

People need to start looking at this game correctly. No one (except maybe the instigator) should want anyone else dead at this point. Because any one of us could be on any one of our teams. What if we lynch the kills? Ok, that's great, except if you end up being Mafia and you helped lynch your killer. Oops. Everyone should just assume they are Mafia and play it that way. If you play as a Goodie at this point, you are gonna be pissed off when you are revealed as Maf and have killed your team off. I'm not outing my action and I have no idea what faction I am a part of, so you won't gain any info at this point. And whoever put the last vote on me and claimed it was pressure... Pressure is within a few minutes of another vote. This late, that's called a lynch vote. You are voting to kill me off, so why? Why vote off someone who has a clear head about this game and is good at figuring things out? Seems bad for the game to me.

[MikeD]

@ Hirkala So you saying that the goodies must just wait around, for the mafia to pick them off?

I am two times more likely to be a Goodie than Mafia so why should I assume that I am Mafia and play that way?