17 replies to this topic

[bonanova]

Studies have been made of pivotal games in a series of contests.
Third and fifth games have been given importance in that regard.

If your team is evenly matched in a best 4 of 7 series of games,
and you could be assured of winning one of the games,
which game would you choose?

See if you can solve this without enumerating all the outcome permutations.

[maurice]

off the bat I'd choose

Spoiler for Game

3...simply because there is no guarantee of a Game 5.

Of course Game 5 either
a) clinches series for you
b) puts you up 3 - 2
c) Keeps you in the series

So maybe 5...


We'll go 3 for reason stated above

Edited by maurice, 25 October 2011 - 04:02 AM.

[bushindo]

If your team is evenly matched in a best 4 of 7 series of games,
and you could be assured of winning one of the games,
which game would you choose?

This is an easy one

Spoiler for spoiler

Game 7 =)

[maurice]

This is an easy one

Spoiler for spoiler

Game 7 =)

Hmm, I guess I read my choices incorrectly...nonetheless there should be a better option

Spoiler for what if

you lose 4 of the first 6 games?

[thoughtfulfellow]

I must disagree with previous answers:

Spoiler for The best guaranteed win option

would be the first game.

Spoiler for Explaination:

evenly matched would represent a 50% chance of winning any game. Having 1 win does not alter the chance of winning the next game, hence expectations would be winning 3 of the next 6 games providing 4 of the seven for a series win.

[14.swapnil.14]

Spoiler for My try.....

I will go for game no.4
Scenarios>>No. of games>>Win>>Loss
A>> 3 >> 0 >>3
B>> 3 >> 1 >>2
C>> 3 >> 2 >>1
D>> 3 >> 3 >>0
So for
scenario A, winning 4th game would still keep us in with a shout.
scenario B, would level the series.
scenario C, win here would make, needing only one win from 3 games.
scenario D:Win would, Win the series!

Edited by 14.swapnil.14, 25 October 2011 - 08:41 AM.

[bushindo]

Hmm, I guess I read my choices incorrectly...nonetheless there should be a better option

Spoiler for what if

you lose 4 of the first 6 games?

You didn't read the choices incorrectly. I was just being faceticious :-). Please carry on.

[Panwar]

Spoiler for I'll Choose...

3 and 5 are the pivotal games and keeping in mind that both teams are evenly matched so there is very less chance that series will finish in first 4 games.

So i'll choose 5 as it is very crucial as per studies.

Edited by Panwar, 25 October 2011 - 11:47 AM.

[bobbyplump]

The answer really is...

Spoiler for Real Answer

Game 7.
Here's the question: If your team is evenly matched in a best 4 of 7 series of games, and you could be assured of winning one of the games, which game would you choose?
It doesn't say your choices are 3 or 5. So if you are assured of winning Game 7, you know you win the series 100% of the time.

That said, if the choice IS between 3 and 5, I'd pick...

Spoiler for 3 or 5?

Game 5. Because there are only seven possible permutations after a Game 5 win. And my team would win 4 of the seven.

In fact, the odds get better with every game. A win in Game 6 gets you a series win 2/3 of the time. I didn't do the permutations for the lower games. It just stands to reason, if you are assured a win later in the series, that means you are assured to make it to that game, which is half the battle.

Edited by bobbyplump, 25 October 2011 - 02:45 PM.

[aamph]

This is very easy. The question says game 3 and game 5 are pivotal games and you could be assured of winning one of the games.

Spoiler for WINNING

Take game 5. You must at least win 1 game to get to game 5, so being assured of winning game 5 is actually giving you 2 wins. Then you only need to win 2 to win the series.
If you win game 3, you still may need to win 3 more games