147 replies to this topic

[plasmid]

Wow... It's really quiet tonight....

I'm about to fix that for sure!

Here's my analysis.

It seems like it would be very difficult to identify an undercover. The only real ways I can see doing it are: 1) an undercover targets Mr Brown and gets outed, or 2) an undercover carries out an action that is blatently something that only an undercover player would do and therefore gets their role outed by the boss or Mr Black. The undercovers can easily avoid either of these by simply not acting and just doing night kills. If the undercovers have abilities like spying or redirecting or blocking then they probably aren't all that useful anyway so they're not missing out on much by not acting.

Proposal 1:
Because of that, it seems to me like it would be useful to demand that people who can act at night do actually act (and therefore put themselves at risk of being detected by Mr Brown) and post some sort of evidence that they acted, or else get outed by the Boss and lynched. In fact, I might even go so far as to say that it might be all right to simply out all the roles that can act at night to force them to be accountable, mainly because no one except Mr Brown can identify factions and I honestly think that most of the night actions are sort of worthless if you not only don't know who the baddies are but also are working against baddies who can go undetected by simply not acting. The only drawback is that outing the roles that can act at night would help the undercovers identify Mr Brown by process of elimination and night kill him. I'll leave this open to discussion.

Proposal 2:
Taking proposal 1 to an extreme, the Boss might even consider just outing Mr Brown outright and demanding the doctor (who we know is not undercover) save him at night. Then everyone who can act on Mr Brown must do it and prove they did or else get lynched

Proposal 3:
I think we need Mr Green to kill every night (unless we identify the undercovers with proposal 2). Honestly, I'm pessimistic about us identifying the undercovers otherwise, so I think it makes sense to have Mr Green kill even if it's somewhat randomly because a blind lynch plus a blind Mr Green kill against a targeted undercover kill every day/night gives better odds for the mobsters than just a blind lynch against a targeted undercover kill every day/night. The argument against allowing Mr Green to kill is that, if he's undercover then the undercovers get two kills per night against one lynch a day, then the mobsters will die quickly and painfully.

The best way I can think of to allow Mr Green to kill without running the risk of an undercover Mr Green going on a rampage is that we vote every day on BOTH a person to lynch AND a person for Green to kill. If Mr Green disobeys orders, then he gets outed by the Boss and lynched the next day, and the person who he refused to kill was probably the other undercover.

Proposal 4:
Taking this one step further: if the Boss gets killed then there's nothing to stop Mr Green if he's undercover. Because of this, I think I would even go so far as to propose that Mr Green gets outed right away, in case the Boss dies early. We know that Dr White is a mobster, so he should save Mr Green from night kills because he would be a huge target (probably the most important target in the game). Unfortunately this would keep the doctor tied up, but would be the most reliable way I can imagine of giving the mobsters two daily kills against the undercover's night kill.


To break it down, here are my proposals:
1. The Boss outs everyone who can act at night in a way that can be proven, and insist that they post proof that they acted (to force the undercovers to run the risk of acting on Mr Brown)
2. Proposal #1, plus out Mr Brown, demand the doctor save him, and demand that everyone who can must act on him and post proof.
3. We vote on who Mr Green should kill every night. If Mr Green disobeys orders, then he and the person he didn't kill get lynched.
4. Proposal #3, plus the Boss outs Mr Green now (in case he's undercover and the Boss dies before he disobeys orders), and the doctor saves Green every night (if proposal #2 is done, then proposal #4 happens afterward).

But this is also my first mafia game, so feel free to point out logic holes or unintended consequences if my analysis seems off.
Then we need to decide which if any of these we want to implement.
You can vote if you want, but of course only the Boss's vote will actually count =)

Edit: and if Mr Green gets redirected, the Boss should out Boss' son and have him lynched

Edited by plasmid, 23 September 2011 - 02:50 AM.

[maurice]

Woah! Who invited that guy?

And I haven't even read his post yet.

[plasmid]

Yep, I'm definitely taking more of a "logicians wearing black or white hats" style approach than your usual Mafia approach.

[Molly Mae]

Yep, I'm definitely taking more of a "logicians wearing black or white hats" style approach than your usual Mafia approach.

Kind of off-topic, but....

@MM: Can we keep him? =P

[KlueMaster]

Well, I have not checked the post for coherency of logic, but prima facie it will be like boss showing his hand to baddies undercovers (unless he is an undercover himself). What more would undercovers ask for on Night 1? Yeah, recruiting Mr White perhaps.

On a serious note though, it will be like removing a layer of protection around information. So, we will have all knowing majority v/s somewhat informed minority. We won't have to wait for information to reveal itself over the course of the game.

[araver]

@plasmid - that's a great approach to the current situation (reminds me of curr3nt's ).

I only read it once, not enough to actually document all holes in the 4 plans.

But writing a couple of things which may affect those plans since insomnia kept me this far - 6am and counting and then I'll go to sleep:

1) One of the assumptions you make early on is that neither the Boss and Mr Brown are bad guys (undercover cops or whatever that's called in this mafia) and there's a lot drawn from that, including the premise that undercovers that can act won't act unless forced to. I think it's a stretch. Both the premise and the implication.

The whole distribution of minority abilities vs majority abilities and assuming some are surely part of the uninformed majority is a can of worms... this is subject to a little host-WiFoM, e.g would the host pick a killer as a baddie, wouldn't that be unbalanced? would the host pick the Boss as an baddie, wouldn't that be unbalanced?
If it's random, it's random, which means any plan has to have contingency plans even if a given role is part of the minority, otherwise a lot can fall through these cracks.

2) The second thing missed is that your plans require all players to agree on something someone claims and even if they do coordinate and it works as it should on paper - i.e. assuming best-play from their part, this still has to resort to wifom in order to avoid the (at least double- if not all-out-) exposure the plans itself create. You risk running out of key roles and you can't have Mr. White saving everyone at the same time.

3) Timing - Look at the timeline for a sec, try to simulate the game - how fast can the minority side achieve it's win?

Assuming the luckiest streak for the minority: 2vs6, one Nk 2vs5, one lynch 2vs4 one nk 2vs 3, one lynch 2vs2. That would be end of D2.
Now, your plans should prevent that from happening without running "out of ammo". When you say "lynch those two", you'd be better be in a situation where you still hold majority at least for the first one and be very sure about that first lynch. And that means protecting the vote manipulation if he's part of the majority (The Boss) since that ability is key to winning those lynches.

If the special conversion of Mr.White is taken into account, the absolute luckiest streak for the minority is: 2vs6 one-conversion-nk 3vs5, one-lynch 3vs4, one nk 3vs3. That's N2.
And by outing information, you might be also opening up the fast lane for Mr.White to win with the minority. It has been done before. Whenever a betrayer or faction choosing felt the balance tipping would lead to a sure or good odds of winning. This is a part of Mafia.

4) (and perhaps the most important bit left out) This is a game played by people. Much more often than not (sadly), people will not react as logical as you'd expect, nor read or trust or follow plans (even much simpler ones which can be explained in less than two lines). That's not something that should stop you from laying out plans.
But I did feel that you need the forewarning, so that you won't feel disappointed with the "human" side of Mafia - people don't always pay attention, don't always trust (or bother with) other people's logic, and don't always play an optimal solution.

[araver]

And a late addition to 4 which may have been too bitterly written - don't get me wrong the human side of the game is not all-bad, it leads to interesting stuff, including a lot of clever moves that involve mostly lying and misdirection. Just meant it's not a static puzzle.

OOC: Where's Hirk when you need someone to explain how the dark side Sith stuff works?

[Molly Mae]

OOC: Where's Hirk when you need someone to explain how the dark side Sith stuff works?

*Whispers* He got a job...

[plasmid]

Brief responses: Yes, you are correct that if Mr Brown is undercover then the plan won't work. But, if Mr Brown is undercover, then the mobsters have pretty much no way of identifying the undercovers regardless and are screwed either way.

You're also correct that I didn't talk about what would happen if the Boss is undercover. If (s)he is undercover, then I suspect that (s)he would simply not reveal anyone's roles and it would be as if I never made these suggestions. But if the Boss were undercover and posted lies about who has which role, then that would be a dead giveaway (at least to the players whose roles he lied about) that (s)he's undercover and needs to be lynched.

[plasmid]

Hi ho, hi ho, it's off to work I go. So I probably won't end up being able to log on again until close to the end of night 1.

But regarding the third point araver brought up of timing and maybe not being able to make this plan work quickly enough, that's why I posted it ASAP on night 1. I'd like to force people to spy Mr Brown or get Mr Green killing immediately if possible.

So, although I won't be around to field more questions / criticisms / food fights over the plan (unless today turns out to be an easy day at work)...

To the Boss: I will still be able to adjust whatever my night action is for tonight if we go ahead with any of the plans.

To the undercovers: I'm lying about having any night actions in order to confuse and annoy you.