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Sherlock Holmes Mafia


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#21 Framm 18

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Posted 30 November 2010 - 05:54 PM

Not really. And since you're voting for me (and because of Framm's gift), I now need to tell you why I did that:
I did not vote blindly or randomly. I actually thought that it's better to choose you rather than choose randomly.
From what I read in the night post, not one goodie, but two goodies know who you are (goodie BTSC). Doubtful you are one of them spying on yourself.
There is an off-chance that you're Moriarty in which case you are the goodie's wincon, but that's a stretch because of the wording of the nightpost. Other than that, there are 4 goodie/4 baddie+indie roles left which makes it a fair 50-50 chance that you're not goodie. Plus, that very small chance that you are Moriarty does tip the 50-50 balance, because lynching you in that case would fullfil the goodie wincon (we can't have lost majority). So the odds are better in your case than 6/5 for choosing someone randomly (and not knowing whether maurice was goodie or indie). I was the second to vote (and about to get some sleep - it was 4am in my time-zone), so I did not see any other posted information (except a seemingly random vote).

I'm a logical type of person and that is reasoning behind my vote. I did not expect anyone to vote for/bandwagon on you, other than the case that you're Moriarty and then lynching you is actually more important than outing roles. It was worth a try. Plus if I'm right it gave me an information on who not to vote, so I actually have more information than before voting :)

All of that still does not tell me who to vote next, so I'm adding to someone else's pressure for now.
My reasoning is that in a 7/3/2 game distribution with 4 kill roles we either start exchanging information soon, or we have to shoot randomly.

BTW my name is araver, not avarer :)


I get what you are saying, but seeming to pin him down to just that one role. Is something that is making it hard for me to remove my vote. I also want to hear more from Vine, but seeing as how she will be offline for a bit. My vote stays for now.

P.S. My fault on the name thing sorry. :blush:
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#22 araver

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Posted 30 November 2010 - 06:36 PM

I get what you are saying, but seeming to pin him down to just that one role. Is something that is making it hard for me to remove my vote. I also want to hear more from Vine, but seeing as how she will be offline for a bit. My vote stays for now.

P.S. My fault on the name thing sorry. :blush:


I'm not pinning him down for that role. I'm not sure if a simpler explanation would have been easier, I think I always over-post on BD (puzzles and riddles too). Maybe that's not so good for mafia idk. I chose to explain my reason simply because me sharing it does not tell the baddies or indies anything more.

Imagine you're me. No actual information other than the night-post, starting spreadsheet. 12 roles total. First row Glyc. Glyc spied by Holmes. Subtract Holmes, Glyc's not Holmes unless he was redirected to himself. Subtract Watson (Holmes spying Watson is a waste unless it was redirected - 2 redirecters among 12 roles). Subtract me. 9 roles possible. Wording suggests Moriarty spied Holmes who spied Glyc. If I were a host, I would choose a different wording for the case where Glyc=Moriarty and the sequence is actually a circle, but that's not 100 %sure (also if I were a host, I would not post spies, so it's not 100% actually usable as a deduction). Subtract Moriarty then. 8 roles possibles probability 50% to be goodie. So Occam's razor (no redirects involved) means 50/50. Better chance than random, go with that.
Now the two minimal events that were left out are:
A) sequence being a circle - all the better in favor of voting for Glyc.
B) Holmes got redirected. Worst case he spied himself or Watson too. Best case he spied Moriarty (see sequence A). Worst case just means I can't eliminate the cases as in the analysis above and I'm back to random.
Overall, still better than random. Seriously, I would really wanna now what is wrong with this type of thinking?

Came back after half a day (night in my timezone) to see more votes. Figured if Glyc is bad either Holmes or Watson can vote for him after some votes are in (saying for pressure or anything), making my assumption valid. Equally true, Glyc is good and some baddie/indie bandwagons on him (declaring almost the same thing). No votes on him mean that Holmes/Watson don't want to jump on it (meaning either Glyc's a goodie or not an important baddie/indie like Moriarty) and that baddies don't wanna bandwagon either (inactives/don't care, idk). Either way, no votes mean a tip of the balance for Glyc not being baddie/indie, or not at least an important one. So almost back to square 1. No other important info in the thread, change vote to pressure someone else. Still long till the end of day.

On an unrelated note, the flu is finally starting to get to me, so I think this is my last fully conscious post before my brain starts to melt :(
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#23 Glycereine

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Posted 30 November 2010 - 06:39 PM

Araver you're thinking way too hard. Let me make it simple

Holmes knows who I am and the baddies know who he is which means he has no reason to stay quiet if I'm bad. Your logic is flawed or you're bad
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#24 araver

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Posted 30 November 2010 - 06:53 PM

Araver you're thinking way too hard. Let me make it simple

Holmes knows who I am and the baddies know who he is which means he has no reason to stay quiet if I'm bad. Your logic is flawed or you're bad


Glyc, seriously, the first line is actually a little insulting.

Baddies know who Holmes is, granted.
Holmes knows who you are, granted.
Why would Holmes show himself to indies?
Only incentive to not stay quiet and show himself is if that you are an important baddie/indie. If I were Holmes, I wouldn't come out and push a lynch towards you unless you were Moriarty (which case goodie wins) - the risk of not being trusted and possibly exposing Watson by trying to push the lynching process.
At most I might feel inclined if I knew you were Lestrade - in which case I would eliminate the indy kill and wouldn't care if the other indie knows me, since after the lynch all the goodies will be convinced that I'm Holmes. It might make it an easier game for the goodie or not. Or maybe it wouldn't be worth the risk.

Your entitled to your opinion, I'm entitled to have my own. I don't see the flaw in my logic. I would play it that way. I just removed my vote *because* no one else voted for you.

And your fixation with I'm flawed or I'm bad is starting to annoy me.
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Summer of 2013:
Show the Mafia world you're back in action ... signup for The Coup of Rhotus Mafia.You know you want it, we know you still have it in you so .... Come join the madness!  :thumbsup: 
 
Puzzles open: Strange Creatures I Past puzzles: Mystery Operation Series: I, II, III, IV; Contamination Scenario;
Past games: Crack the Code Series: III, VII, IXPast mafia games: UN Mafia, UN Mafia II, Star Trek Mafia, TMM IV

Almost random quotes:
>> Not only is the universe stranger than we imagine, it is stranger than we can imagine.


#25 Framm 18

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Posted 30 November 2010 - 07:03 PM

Hosts: MissKitten and Prince_Marth85
1. Glycereine - Voting for araver
2. EDM - Voting for Framm18
3. maurice - killed by the Baddies
4. Framm18 - Voting for Little Miss Sunshine
5. woon
6. Vipe195
7. araver - voted for Harvey
8. Little Miss Sunshine
9. LJ - voted for woon
10. Vineetrika - voting for LJ
11. slick-voting for Harvey
12. Harvey

I still don't trust you araver, but until I can get some more information. I will put my vote on someone else.
I also find it strange that the Indy didn't kill last night.
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#26 Glycereine

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Posted 30 November 2010 - 08:13 PM

@Araver

please don't take offense it definitely wasn't meant that way, but alot of times some over-analyzing leads to a worse scenario. That's all I was saying. And as far as simplifying it I wasn't implying that YOU need a simple explanation but just that sometimes simple is better... as you even indicated in your post regarding Occam's Razor.

Anyways I'm suspicious of you but by no means set that you're a baddie
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#27 araver

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 12:04 AM

Glyc, OK, I get it. Sorry if I sounded too harsh.

I don't really know what to vote and there's little time left in D1. Don't think pressure's going to work with so many inactives and it might actually get someone lynched with 2 votes.

Hosts: MissKitten and Prince_Marth85
1. Glycereine - Voting for araver
2. EDM - Voting for Framm18
3. maurice - killed by the Baddies
4. Framm18 - Voting for Little Miss Sunshine
5. woon
6. Vipe195
7. araver - voting for Vipe195
8. Little Miss Sunshine
9. LJ - voted for woon
10. Vineetrika - voting for LJ
11. slick - voting for Harvey
12. Harvey
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Summer of 2013:
Show the Mafia world you're back in action ... signup for The Coup of Rhotus Mafia.You know you want it, we know you still have it in you so .... Come join the madness!  :thumbsup: 
 
Puzzles open: Strange Creatures I Past puzzles: Mystery Operation Series: I, II, III, IV; Contamination Scenario;
Past games: Crack the Code Series: III, VII, IXPast mafia games: UN Mafia, UN Mafia II, Star Trek Mafia, TMM IV

Almost random quotes:
>> Not only is the universe stranger than we imagine, it is stranger than we can imagine.


#28 Glycereine

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 12:25 AM

Hosts: MissKitten and Prince_Marth85
1. Glycereine - Voting for araver
2. EDM - Voting for Framm18
3. maurice - killed by the Baddies
4. Framm18 - Voting for Little Miss Sunshine
5. woon
6. Vipe195
7. araver - voting for Vipe195
8. Little Miss Sunshine
9. LJ - voted for woon
10. Vineetrika - voting for LJ
11. slick - voting for Harvey
12. Harvey

What happens in the case of a tie?
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#29 Glycereine

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 12:39 AM

Hosts: MissKitten and Prince_Marth85
1. Glycereine - voting for Vipe195
2. EDM - Voting for Framm18
3. maurice - killed by the Baddies
4. Framm18 - Voting for Little Miss Sunshine
5. woon
6. Vipe195
7. araver - voting for Vipe195
8. Little Miss Sunshine
9. LJ - voted for woon
10. Vineetrika - voting for LJ
11. slick - voting forHarvey
12. Harvey

I'll add pressure until I know what the deal is with ties
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#30 MissKitten

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 12:51 AM

In case of a tie, I will randomly choose someone to lynch.
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